Tunnel to some kind of aircraft? by Mike Cordedda

Tunnel to some kind of aircraft? by Mike Cordedda CC (by)

Predicting the future accurately is possible, so says Daniel Burrus, author of Flash Foresight: How to see the invisible and do the impossible. I’m only in chapter 3, but I’m so excited I want to get down my early thoughts now. There WILL be more posts, I can predict that already. ; ) Predicting the future is possible – you just have to know where to look. Obviously, knowing your field is important — but most times the experts get it really, really wrong. General Motors for instance. Here are some early brain dumps: Hard trends v.s soft trendscyclical and linear hard trends vs. short term soft trends – not every third American is an Elvis impersonator, despite the seeming statistical “trend” from the growth in this profession from 1977 to 1982. Changes in tech WILL happen — there are 8 “pathways of technological advancement” — dematerialization, virtualization, mobility, product intelligence, networking, interactivity, globalization, and convergence — and three accelerators: processing power, storage and bandwidth. These are hard trends. The SOFT trend is – who is going to actually DO it? Be PRE-active – anticipate problems before they occur, rather than PRO-active, dealing with a problem in its early phases. The 2006 Tsunamai was predictable – earthquakes happened prior to – and right before the tsunami hit, the ocean receded. A British schoolgirl, Scottish teacher and an aboriginal tribe all saw this and knew that when the ocean recedes notably – it’s gonna make a comeback. His discussion of what’s happening in tech already and what’s on the horizon is jaw-dropping. Here are his trend predictions for 2011, what are you and your organisation doing about these? What am I going to do about these? http://www.flashforesight.com/trends-for-2011/

1 Comment

  1. Pingback: Tweets that mention Predicting the future – you can do it -- Topsy.com

  2. Fascinating KerryJ – thanks for posting this. Looking forward to more. As someone who is trying to teach our future IT professionals, this is the kind of reading that is so essential for me. But what interests me is not just the technology but how will these trends change our social behaviours – at work, at home etc etc…. Some of the implications are just staggering! Another good conversation in the making I hope 🙂