Roger McNamee starts his video off asking “What if you knew major new technology cycle was beginning in the next couple of years?”A tech investor, he then poses six hypotheses with which he’s been working for the past 10 months:
- Windows is dying – their market share is plummeting. Smart phones have taken Windows from 96% of internet connected devices to under 50%. He reckons they’ll be under 30% in 18 months.
- Index search – which accounted for 90% of all search volume – peaked 4 years ago. Index – and the web – has become full of garbage. We’re all looking for other ways for what we want to find – Facebook, Twitter, Trip Advisor, Apps . Like MS, Google can respond in plenty of ways – but it cannot take back its dominant position in index search on the internet. Google commoditised search results – they are the only branding on your search results page. Indexed search isn’t going away – but its going to become just another tool instead of the dominant. Especially on smart phones. Google’s recovery will be in something than search.
- Apps beat the wide open web. Apple provides info that is branded, specific and copyright protected v. the wild open web.
- HTML 5 changes it all. The new battle will be between the App store and highly differentiated content. HTML 5 is, he feels, is a profound change. It provides embedded interactivity and opens up a new canvas. Suddenly, a differentiated, compelling, monetisable product is available to all – and the commoditisers like Google are going to have to find new business models.
- Tablets win big. If you don’t own an iPad, you can’t understand the most important things going on right now. Feels other players not making the same impact. Apple’s gross margins exceed the retail price of every Android phone.
- Social is a side show. Facebook is the new Windows. Twitter, Yelp, Skype, Linked In are building successful platforms but are going to be much smaller. The rest are going to have to follow the Zynga model and be subordinate to Facebook. Going to do a social start up? Build it on Facebook. But social is a feature, not a main focus.
McNamee’s rock band did live casts via Twitter, did live casting over YouTube, then broadcast via his own satellite network using HTML 5. His band web site is being upgraded to HTML 5 and that means you can view all their videos. He says it costs practically nothing to do this.
Every Tweet is an app. Every advertisement is a store – create demand and satisfy it in the same place. Saves time, increases engagement. Going from a web of elevators to a control panel model. WOW.